Economic and Financial Resources

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Economic Advisory Report

During uncertain times, look to MHEDA for economic data, guidance and insight. MHEDA Members have exclusive access to a FREE, quarterly report, produced by experts at ITR Economics. This report is generated specifically for MHEDA Members and provides you with clear, actionable data and insights. This is an excellent tool for you and your leadership team to utilize as you plan for shifting economic conditions. Download your report today and share with your team.

Report Highlights:

  • Updated Quarterly
  • FREE for MHEDA Members
  • Includes data trends, moving averages and totals;
  • Describes data on future demand for your products and services;
  • Uncovers foresight of the expected growth and contraction in the market;
  • Provides growth rate forecast for 2023, 2024 and 2025;
  • Offers advice and insights for how to manage during four different Business Cycle Phases (Recovery, Accelerated Growth, Slowing Growth and Recession.)
  • Includes strategic insights for leaders on seven key markets (see image below);
  • And so much more!

 
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Q2 2023 Key Insights (Report Published April 28, 2023)

Ten Key Insights from the Q2 2023 MHEDA/ITR Report: “Recession in 2024”

  1. The bad news: ITR is forecasting worsening economic conditions as this year progresses and recession in 2024.
  2. The good news: ITR expects the upcoming recession to be relatively mild.
  3. For many companies that trend with the industrial sector, we are expecting a relatively mild downturn, more akin to 2015-16 than the Great Recession.
  4. Consumer balance sheets remain solid, with relatively low debt-to-income ratios, muted credit delinquency rates, and rising inflation-adjusted income.
  5. The trend of onshoring and nearshoring manufacturing facilities to strengthen supply chains is likely to persist, providing new opportunities for domestic manufacturers.
  6. US Material Handling New Orders will be relatively flat this year.
  7. US Overall Wage Growth was at 6.4% in March, having declined slightly from a record high of 6.7% in late 2022. Ongoing and expected rise in labor costs will push businesses toward automation, somewhat blunting the impact of macroeconomic decline on New Orders over the coming business cycle.
  8. US Food Production in the 12 months through March was 1.5% above the year-ago level.
  9. While annual Retail Sales will rise through 2025, the pace of rise will decrease into the end of 2024, in concert with the anticipated macroeconomic recession that year.
  10. Leading indicators point to tougher economic conditions in the coming quarters. Monitor your company’s quarterly and annual rolling rates-of change to assess how you are being impacted.

Takeaways for your business:

  • Know your customers and your market;
  • Promote your business’s competitive advantages;
  • Re-examine any planned capital expenditures;
  • Make sure you have sufficient cash on hand;
  • Do not fall into the rabbit hole. In the long term, we expect the US to be well-positioned as a place for business.
Q1 2023 Key Insights (Report Published February 1, 2023)

Ten Key Insights from the Q1 2023 Report: “What A Yield Curve Inversion Means for You”

  1. According the closely monitored data, there is an 88% probability that a recession is coming.
  2. Expected decline throughout 2024.
  3. Three main tailwinds – reshoring, backlogs, and a solid consumer balance sheet – will keep the recession relatively mild.
  4. It will be especially important to understand the degree to which your business will (or will not) be impacted by a macroeconomic recession. Use the forecasts in this report to help.
  5. Take this as an opportunity to upgrade your talent pool in preparation for recovery and rise starting in 2025.
  6. In spite of this, the labor market and consumer balance sheets look very strong, offering upside risk.
  7. What can you do amid the uncertainty? First and foremost, make a plan and work the plan.
  8. Get your employees excited and focused on implementing those plans; but be ready to adjust your plans as things develop.
  9. Monitor your cash flow more carefully than before.
  10. Lastly, lead with confidence and be opportunistic. Your competitors may go into panic mode. Do not follow them there.

Report Summary Excerpt:

“Rain or shine, we constantly monitor our system of leading indicators for signs of improvement or
deterioration. In the last quarter, we’ve seen broad-based weakness, coupled with a new signal: short-term interest rates, as measured by 3-month Treasury yields, are now higher than long-term interest rates, as measured by 10-year Treasury yields. This so-called “inverted yield curve” signals an 88% probability that recession is coming for US Industrial Production; the Federal Reserve has raised short-term interest rates too far, too fast.

We lowered our annual average US Industrial Production forecast by a slim 0.4% for 2023. Instead of the mild growth (+1.6%) previously forecast, we now expect activity to be virtually flat for 2023 (+0.1%) relative to 2022, with decline developing late in the year. 2024 is impacted more significantly. Prior to the extremely sharp and fast rate hikes by the Fed, we had been expecting growth for 2024. Now we expect decline to extend throughout 2024, with the year coming in 2.3% below the 2023 average, as it typically takes just over a year for yield curve inversions to translate to recession.”

 
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DSC (Distributor Statistical Comparison) Report

MHEDA’s DSC Report is a financial benchmarking study that annually provides key insights into exactly how the “high-profit firms” generate better profit numbers. It focuses intently on the three profit drivers: growth, gross margin and expenses. The report, available for Industrial Truck, Storage & Handling and Engineered Systems,  provides clear evidence as to how small differences in a few areas translate directly into higher levels of profitability. The DSC Report is a summary of dealer member financial data presented in tables and graphs designed to provide a comprehensive guide for analyzing profitability. Member Cost: $500

Learn More   

 Purchase 2022 Report (requires member login)


Podcasts

Economic Advisory Podcasts

Don’t have time to read an economic report? Listen to the podcast! In approximately 10-minutes you will hear the critical highlights of the economic report via podcast.

Economic Advisory Report: April 2023

April 28, 2023

This quarterly economic report, published by ITR Economics, features data specifically for the material handling industry to assist MHEDA members plan for the year ahead. The full detailed report is […]

Economic Advisory Report: January 2023

February 1, 2023Duration: 10:54

This quarterly economic report, published by ITR Economics, features data specifically for the material handling industry to assist MHEDA members plan for the year ahead. The full detailed report is […]

Economic Advisory Report: October 2022

November 4, 2022Duration: 09:26

This quarterly economic report, published by ITR Economics, features data specifically for the material handling industry to assist MHEDA members plan for the year ahead. The full detailed report is […]

Economic Advisory Report: July 2022

July 26, 2022Duration: 11:01

This quarterly economic report, published by ITR Economics, features data specifically for the material handling industry to assist MHEDA members plan for the year ahead. The full detailed report is […]

Economic Advisory Report: April 2022

April 30, 2022Duration: 08:58

This quarterly economic report, published by ITR Economics, features data specifically for the material handling industry to assist MHEDA members plan for the year ahead. The full detailed report is […]

 


MHEDA-TV Videos

Macroeconomics: Commodity and Input Prices

May 11, 2023Duration: 43:38

Volatile commodity prices made it difficult for the distribution community to predict input costs and manage budgets since the start of the pandemic. The fallout of this volatility included squeezed […]

Economic Advisory Report: April 2023

April 28, 2023Duration: 13:01

This quarterly economic report, published by ITR Economics, features data specifically for the material handling industry to assist MHEDA members plan for the year ahead. The full detailed report is […]

Macroeconomics: Inflation and Interest Rates

April 14, 2023Duration: 46:11

The US economy is firmly on the back side of the business cycle. Further deceleration lies ahead, but the severity and longevity of the downturn is uncertain. Does a recession […]

DSC 101: How & Why to Participate in this Benchmarking Survey

March 14, 2023Duration: 29:11

Are you curious about the DSC Survey but unsure what it entails? This presentation shows how to use this benchmarking tool and why members see value in participating. You will […]

Cash Flow Strategies for Navigating Your Business

February 2, 2023Duration: 01:01:49

Managing cash flow continues to be one of the biggest issues small business owners face. Almost two thirds of small business owners are regularly stressed or have anxiety about cash […]